The Curious Case Indian Election Results

The morning of May 16, 2009 marks the high point of the Great Indian Tamasha; counting for the 15th Lok Sabha Elections gets underway. The pre-results phase is not only marked by subtle alliance making in the political circles but also by speculations among analysts and the intelligentsia. Election results in India, the largest and most diverse democracy, could even send Sherlock Holmes’s insights into a spin. But being an Indian how could I resist the temptation of putting forth my own analysis of the possible political combinations and permutations likely to gain shape by Saturday afternoon. So here is my take on 2009 General Election results.
But before I go ahead let me ask you: Have you been following the Exit Polls? If Exit polls are to be believed (depending on which exit polls you want to believe - NDTV, CNN-IBN, AAJ Tak or any other) the Indian political scene is utterly confusing.  Numbers and trends in most of these polls don’t match anywhere. Exit polls in the past have not only gone wrong but have been wide off the mark. I understand the complexity and margin of error but the only facts that the exit polls have correctly highlighted for the 2009 Elections are:�
1. None of the two main Fronts - UPA and NDA will cross 230 (I know it is very optimistic figure but this is the maximum that they will get).
2. Third Front surely won’t cross 130.
That leaves us with three post-counting scenarios: either the UPA or NDA forms the government or there is a very slim chance that Third Front will form a government; I apologize for having completely ignored the Fourth Front, it obviously has no chance. Here are a few best case scenarios for the Third Front, NDA and UPA.
Let me first take Third Front
Best case scenario of “150” seats for Third Front (assuming Mayawati, Jayalalitha, Left, TDP all do amazingly well in respective states) – Now they need another 120 odd seats to form the government.
Congress and BJP (not the fronts but the parties) will independently will get 135 and 125 seats respectively (their worst case scenario)…thus total of 260 seats.
So will the Congress or the BJP join the third Front under some strange political arrangement? Two possibilities, or should I say impossibilities:
1. Third Front gains support from BJP. This for sure will cause the Left to walk out of the Third Front singing “Akla Chalo re”. Mayawati will not mind taking out side support from BJP to form the Government with the pre-condition that she is designated as the P.M. Or better still a rotational Prime Ministership where Mayawati has her take at the high political seat before Advaniji.
2. The Congress provides outside support. Come on…. why will the Congress allow the Left or Mayawati to become PM with 40 seats each?
So now the Third Front will need almost the entire remaining parties (including the current NDA and UPA allies) if they want to form the government without BJP and Congress. This is impossible, although politicians say that no one is untouchable in politics but this mix of parties will have BSP-SP, JDU-RJD, AIADMK-DMK all under one front.
Thus the possibility of the Third Front forming the Government is quite bleak. But let’s indulge into some absurd crystal ball gazing: If by any chance of destiny the Third Front claims stake to power our Prime Minister will be from Left. (I have heard they are working to Clone younger Jyoti Basu ? )
Why a P.M. from the Left?? Simply because Mulayam will not let Mayawati be PM, Lalu will not allow Nitish to be the P.M. and  Karuna will not let Jayalalitha to be P.M. Given this delicate political balancing in the Third Front, the great COMRADES from Bengal and Kerala will chicken out or should I say fish out ? Bengali word “BHITO”…
If above coalition happens then it will be 8th wonder of the world.
Let’s now take NDA�
If exit polls are to be believed then BJP is doing pretty good in Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and of course Bihar (though it is JD U with BJP there). They share honors in Rajasthan, Delhi (may be), UP (share the honors 4 ways), Punjab and couple of other northern states.
In the best case scenario the NDA is going to be 205, that will leave them with 70 odd seats short of forming the Government. The natural allies for the NDA would be TDP, ADMK (along with Amma’s kids Ramados and Vaiko) giving the alliance another 40 bonus seats. Where will the remaining 30 seats come from??
Mr Modi’s heroics few years ago (not the development ones will keep Left and Fourth Front (RJD, SP, Paswan) away from the NDA. The only hope is Mayawati, who can be expected to win around 30 seats. Aligning with Mayawati is a highly problematic scenario. The BSP excels and can outdo all political parties in the game of political opportunism. Mayawati will have several pre-conditions for lending support: improve CBI’s efficiency only against Mulayam, Amar Singh and SP; perhaps a Deputy Prime Ministership for a Muslim candidate of her party (Muslims are the only vote that alienate her ); don’t forget her ultimate desire to grace the Prime Minister’s Chair. Mayawati will use the NDA alliance opportunity to make BSP stronger in UP and in rest of the country but will eventually withdraw support.
So the NDA’s power dreams rest on Maya ? Its for you to deduce which Maya.�
Finally UPA with a greater and better chance
In the best case scenario UPA could get 225 seats. That will leave them short of 50 seats.  According to me the UPA has the best chance of forming the Government because they are the lesser evil (word is SECULAR) among other parties.�
In reality Congress is in better position to “REPLACE” their allies, Lalu with Nitish, Karuna with Amma and Mulayam with Maya (provided that the new chosen ones perform and win more seats)

The Congress will have the following choices:�
1. Fourth Front will be most happy to join the Congress. The best case scenario for the Fourth Front is 35. SP, RJD, Paswan have all been of power in UP and Bihar for some time. Power to politicians is like fuel to an automobile. Thus these out-of-fuel politicians will be more than eager to join the Congress.
2. Mayawati too could join Congress because she would like to cut the fuel for Mulayam so as to make the BSP stronger in UP (or I should say SP will become weaker without the financial fuel). In this scenario SP will walk out. So here the Congress could possibly trade off Mulayam with 25 seats for Mayawati with 35 seats.
3. ADMK (with Vaiko and PMK) can replace DMK as the Congress ally if they get more seats than DMK. Right now it’s a split but with Tamil Nadu you never know. Some say DMK’s free TV sets might save them or Amma’s election cry of “TV’s are of no use without electricity” might wipe them off.
4. Comrades (Left) are great thinkers, in fact they think so much that they can never get to doing anything. I am sure the Left must have already thought over all these and other innumerable scenarios and concluded that would support the Congress from outside. What will happen to our beloved Mamta DIDI then?? The Congress will obviously opt for the Left with 40 seats over the barely 10 seat support of mamtadi. Or could Didi be fine with outside support?
5. JDU could join Congress and replace RJD and Paswan from fourth fromt Nitish is expected to get 25 seats compared to 7 of RJD and Paswan�
Floaters
1. BJD (only party that is independent as of now) can join Congress and add another 10 seats. They have been NDA ally in the past but since last year and a half they have snapped the ties with BJP thus making a 3 way fight with Congress and BJP in Orissa. I would say BJD can go either ways.
2. JD S in Karnataka (might get 2 to 5 seats) can join Congress as well as BJP.
3. RLD and JMM are small parties but they cannot be left out.
There is no universal definition of democracy. I have no intentions of going into the details of freedom of speech, minority rights, and free political expression here to explain the concept of democracy. I will stick with my own definition that highest form of democracy is one where each individual vote counts. And this what makes Indian democracy the most distinct. Representatives from NC, PDP in terror ridden Kashmir Valley, JMM in Tribal Jharkhand, CPI-ML in Bihar, to CPI Comrades in Bengal and Kerala, AGP and Mizo in North East to far right Shiv Sena in Mumbai, Dalit Queen Mayawati in UP to Dravidian’s in Tamil Nadu all are equally important for the formation of next Government in the world’s biggest democracy. They all represent a minority in themselves but they will decide who will lead India. We as Indians can clearly associate ourselves with any one of above and thus can be proud that our vote (through our representative) decided the next PM.