Zardari’s confrontation and Gilani’s Reconciliation: Where is Pakistan Headed?

The decision of the Pakistan Supreme Court to uphold the ban on Former P.M. Nawaz Sharif and Punjab C.M. Shahbaz Sharif has initiated a phase of multiple political crises for the country. Since the PML (N) has a majority in the Punjab Assembly and enjoys popular support, the court ruling has ignited a political movement against President Zardari. The PML (N)’s demand for reinstating the judges has widespread political and popular support. The Court decision has not only widened the gulf between the PPP and PML (N), but has also amplified the intra-government fissures. President Zardari’s style of political functioning has come in direct confrontation to that of P.M. Gilani. Coexistence of the two as the country’s top political functionaries appears doubtful.
On February 27, a special session of the National Assembly was convened to address the political crisis. P.M. Gilani used the occasion to reassure the protesting opposition that democratic procedure would be upheld by the Federal Government. P.M. Gilani’s earlier assurances to Shahbaz Sharif that the Punjab Assembly would not be dissolved proved hollow as President Zardari soon imposed President’s Rule in the province. Moreover, Gilani’s pledges appeared meaningless as the PPP prepares to install its government in Punjab. According to reports in the meeting between President Zardari and P.M. Gilani on March 2, both political functionaries agreed to approach the political crisis through dialogue and negotiations. But such rapprochement is bound to be short-lived given the mounting pressure on the Government.
The Awami National Party and Jamait- Ulema-e- Islam Fazl, coalition partners in the PPP government, have criticized the Supreme Court decision to disqualify the Sharif brothers. The PML (N) on the other hand is reluctant to negotiate and seeks to secure utmost political advantage of the anti-Zardari sentiment. Influenced by the gathering political momentum, P.M. Gilani continues to oppose President Zardari’s anti-democracy decisions. According to P.M. Gilani the Supreme Court order disqualifying the Sharif brothers had caused the ‘weakening of democracy’ in the country. On February 28, P.M. Gilani made a surprising statement declaring that the Punjab Assembly was not dissolved and the Governor could convene its session. Zardari and Gilani’s approach to legal issues is also markedly different. President Zardari was prepared to confront the lawyers, while P.M. Gilani views the protest march by lawyers as an expression of their democratic right. P.M. Gilani has requested President Zardari to withdraw the Ordinance to promulgate mobile courts in the country. President Zardari has signed the Ordinance to establish mobile courts last week, with the objective of adjudicating minor offenses o the spot. The opposition parties fear that the courts are a ploy by the President to deal with his political opponents.
P.M. Gilani is seeking to ensure his political survival in the post-Zardari future of Pakistan. Calculated confrontations with President Zardari are designed to emphasize Gilani’s democratic credibility in event of a political showdown between pro-democracy and anti-Zardari factions. Nevertheless, the 17th amendment puts the political future of P.M. Gilani in the hands of President Zardari if the latter survives the ongoing phase of opposition. The lawyer’s march proposed for March 12-16 is expected to test the political styles of the President and Prime Minister and determine the future of democracy in Pakistan.

[Photo: President Zardari and P.M. Gilani; Photo Courtesy: Daily Times, March 2, 2009]