The Godfather Doctrine

The Godfather is a classic American movie centered on the rise, confrontations and adaptations of the Corleone family. The Godfather Doctrine is a book by John C. Hulsman and A. Wess Mitchell to communicate, through the plot of the movie, the current state of U.S. foreign policy. Rather than attempting to explain the U.S. foreign policy through the complex theories of the disciple of International Relations, Hulsman and Mitchell use the analogy of The Godfather to connect to a wider audience. The reader may choose to agree or disagree with the authors, but this experiment at presenting a foreign policy parable is commendable.

Vito Corleone and his success as the mafia don are used in the book to symbolize the global dominance of the U.S. following the end of the Cold War. The assassination attempt on the life of Don Corleone had alarmed the entire family much like the shock waves across the U.S. following the 9/11 attacks. The attack on Don Corleone was planned by Vrigil “The Turk” Sollozzo, who was sensing the decline in the power of the Corleone family. Iran, North Korea, Al Qaeda and Iraq are the Sollozzos of the real world, challenging the U.S. power and position. In an effort to avenge the fatal attack and restore the family’s dominance over the mafia underworld Santino, Tom and Michael, sons of the Don adopt different approaches. Each of the approaches adopted by the sons of Don Corleone broadly represents the traits exhibited in the U.S. foreign policy.

For Santino, referred to as Sonny in the movie, the use of force is the most logical response. He is anger and concern leads him to a path of confrontation with the other groups in the underworld, inevitably uniting them against the Corleone family. The authors compare Sonny’s approach to the neo-conservative approach in U.S. strategy during the Bush Administration. Sonny’s ‘shoot first and ask questions later’ approach is compared to the pre-emptive doctrine of the Bush team. Sonny’s aggressive behavior pushes Carlo Rizzi, his brother-in-law, into the enemy camp leading to a fatal attack on Sonny.

The desire of Tom to ‘hear out’ the concerns and demands of the other groups is reflective in the liberal institutional approach of the Democrats. According to the authors, President Obama’s decision to conduct negotiations with leaders like Ahmadinejad is unlikely to result in positive outcomes. President Obama, like Tom, fails to realize that the very framework within which dialogue is expected to be conducted has changed. The global institutional structure, much like the mafia network, is crumbling given the relative decline of the don and ascendancy of the Tattaglias and Barzinis. Countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China depict the Tattaglia and Barzini families of the movie.  

Michael, who finally comes to the salvation of the Corleone family, is the realist voice in international relations, yet to convincingly influence U.S. foreign policy. Michael is someone who comprehends that the power equations in the underworld are changing and the Corleone family will have to adapt to these changing for survival. Michael does resort to violence in managing his opponents, but his realism is reflected in judiciously using his bargaining and armed might in the process. According to the authors, the U.S. needs to employ the soft and hard resources of power much like Tom in adapting to a multipolar world order. The decisions of Michael to shift operations to Nevada and promote Carlo Rizzi are strategic changes made in the interest of the Corleone family.   

According to the authors the threat from real world Sollozzos and Tattaglias and Barzinis demand that the U.S. adopts a realist policy of carrot and stick directed at survival rather than dominance. The authors caution that like Michael, the U.S. will need to manage immediate challenges before the strategic transformation can take place. Thus adaptations to the multipolar order have to be preceded by decisive strategies to deal with al Qaeda, Iran and North Korea. Skillful management of the immediate challenges would allow the U.S. to approach the multipolar setting from a position of strength.

The Godfather Doctrine presents the current debate among the liberal institutionalists, neocons and realists in Washington in a simple and lucid manner. Its greatest contribution is perhaps the acceptance of that the U.S. power is on the decline; a reality which most strategists choose to ignore.   

[John C. Hulsman and A. Wess Mitchell, The Godfather Doctrine: a Foreign Policy Parable, Princeton University Press, Princeton, Oxford, 2009; Pages 85]