Emergence of ‘New Bargainers’ in South Asia - I

Mainstream politics in South Asia is undergoing a major transformation. Recent developments in the region indicate that elements from the extreme left, armed factions, separatist groups and the ideologically marginalized are entering mainstream politics. Is this transformation reflective of wider democratization or radicalization of politics?

The Communist Party of Nepal Maoists (CPN-M), which had been engaged in guerrilla war for almost a decade, emerged as the largest party in the Constituent Assembly elections held last year. P.M. Dahal, referred to as Prachanda (the Fierce One) was the leader of the violent People’s Movement in Nepal. Attempts are underway to integrate the cadres of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with the National Army of Nepal. In Sri Lanka, Karuna Amman, former commander of the LTTE, has joined the ruling Sri Lankan Freedom Party with 2000 former fighters. Karuna has been appointed, though paradoxically, as a non-Cabinet Minister for National Integration and National Reconciliation. In Pakistan, President Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party is engaged in a process of making deals with Taliban elements with the objective of ensuring peace in the country. President Obama has hinted at the possibility of negotiations with the Taliban in Afghanistan in an attempt to check increasing violence. Are these signs of an inclusive polity or warning signals for a looming crisis? This five part series explores the contemporary political landscape of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan to answer the above question.

A host of national and global forces have conjured to enhance the leverage available to the hitherto ‘non-mainstream’ political forces in the South Asian countries. These forces can be referred to as ‘new bargainers’ in the political arena. While the ‘new bargainers’ can neither be ignored nor defeated, they need to be regulated. The controlled involvement of the ‘new bargainers’ can lead to political stability while any attempt at appeasement can result in the radicalization of the polity. Most of these forces have entered the political mainstream from a position of strength and seek to secure a better bargain in the neatly demarcated political space. Lured by the prospects of short-term gains, the mainstream forces (national and international) appear poised for appeasing the ‘new bargainers’. There are indications that the ‘new bargainers’ are using mainstream politics as a mere change of strategy rather than of objectives. Failure on the part of the National Governments to realize these challenges can prove costly.

The most compelling reason for the emergence of ‘new bargainers’ is the state of strategic stalemate. The ‘new bargainers’ were initially forces voicing the concerns of the socially, politically and economically deprived sections of society. The inability of mainstream forces to satisfactorily address the demands raised by the ‘new bargainers’ enhanced popular support for the latter. Popular support couple with unconventional armed power allowed the ‘new bargainers’ to challenge and force the mainstream political forces to share the national political space. The rationale and impact of this development varies in each country of the region, but nevertheless points to an emerging trend.

In Nepal, the anti-Monarchy drive allowed the CPN-M to cut a bargain with the Seven Party Alliance (SPA) and pledged to surrender their arms. As expected, the CPN-M’s integration is proving to be a painful experiment for Nepal. The Maoists in Nepal are yet to renounce violence and adapt to the democratic norms, trade unions linked to the CPN-M continue the “strike campaigns” disrupting normal life in Nepal and even targeting essential services like hospitals, record on governance is dismal , process of political reconciliation is threatened and CPN-M is signaling to reworking the political agreement.

Karuna in Sri Lanka formed the TMVP (Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal) as a par-military group after defecting from the LTTE in 2004. The TMVP has assisted the Sri Lankan Government in combating the LTTE forces and was registered as a political party in 2007 and secured a majority in the Eastern Provincial Council the same year. Members of the TMVP are allowed by the Sri Lankan authorities to carry arms in self-defense.  The fallout of Karuna - Pillaiyan differences highlighted the danger of allowing a para-military unit to operate as a political party, reports of the Human Rights Watch reveal how the Karuna faction continues to recruit child soldiers and engage in grave human rights violations, the conduct of the TMVP during the Batticaloa local council elections in March 2008 is a specimen of the aggressive tactics of the TMVP. 

The attempts at negotiating peace deals with moderate and willing elements of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan marks the single most significant shift in the approach of political mainstream towards armed opposition. National and international efforts designed to combat and defeat the Taliban as forces of religious extremism have met with limited success. The Taliban have regained ground and threaten peace in the region. As a peace-enhancing strategy the mainstream political forces are reconciling to the demands of the fundamentalist groups. Taliban prisoners are being released, the army is halting anti-Taliban operations and liberal concessions have been granted. Despite official efforts at reconciliation violence has continued to mount, incidents of bombing and deadly attacks continue unabated. Gul Agha Sherzai, a former warlord, is all set to challenge President Hamid Karzai in the Afghanistan Presidential elections later this year. Gul Agha, involved in cases of corruption and human rights violations, is seeking U.S. support by pledging to talk and negotiate with tribal militant groups in the country.

Unfortunately, recent trends indicate that the ‘new bargainers’ are overtaking the political process in the South Asian states and continue to interact through the tools and psychology of the bygone phase of confrontation. Considering that the mainstream political process is destabilized, the ‘new bargainers’ have become emboldened and are merely refurbishing strategy to achieve their traditional goals. Though the ingress of the ‘new bargainers’ into mainstream politics is commendable, their agendas cannot be allowed to dominate national politics. Issues of long term political stability will have to prioritized while the ‘new bargainers’ are allowed access into mainstream politics.

Nature of the Maoist forces as ‘new bargainers’ in Nepal shall be explored in the next post.